Text Islami

Sudahkan Anda Memikirkan & Mempersiapkan Kematian Anda ?

Muslim wajib menjaga lima perkara:

Agama, Akal, Kehormatan, Harta dan Jiwa

Percaya Hanya Pada Analisa Anda ... USAHA maksimal, SABAR dan DISIPLIN... lalu serahkan hasilnya pada Allah subhanahu wa ta'ala...

Thursday, October 27, 2011

10 Aturan Dasar Trading for A Living

Trading For A Living itu mudah diucapkan tapi tidak mudah dilaksanakan, perlu persiapan matang dan tidak berhenti belajar...
Trading For a Living
If you are thinking about becoming a full-time stock trader to trade for a living, feeding yourself and your family from your home investment office. Then you should be aware of some very basic rules to reduce the risk of losing money and to maximize profits when buying and selling shares.
Trading stocks is not a get rich quick scheme, but it very well can be a get poor quick scheme if you don't pay attention.
Basic trading rules are simple and obvious once someone tell them to you. With that in mind, here are 10 great ones to follow:
  1. No one can predict the future so don't even try. Don't try to "time the market". Just learn how to read its signals and let it keep heading in the direction it's heading in until something happens to turn it around. Develop or buy into an existing stock trading system and stick with it.
  2. Big scores come from position sizing. Position sizing is the process of determining HOW MANY contracts to trade when your system gets a signal. Position sizing is one of the most important and least understood concepts with losing traders. The purpose of position sizing is to control risk, enhance returns and increase robustness through market normalization. Position sizing can end up being more important than when you actually buy or sell! Unfortunately, most systems and testing platforms seem to ignore it completely (or worse, apply it illogically).
  3. Everything is about price, price, price. Stocks do not follow fundamentals just because you want them to. Prices change based upon the perceptions of the buyers and sellers.
  4. Don't take your advice from the big money management funds. They don't seek to outperform the stock market, they seek to manage everyone's money as risk-free as possible and make a lot of money from fees. Pick stocks based upon what YOU want as far as risk and performance is concerned.
  5. Don't depend upon technical analysis. Stocks trade based upon fear, greed, and perception. All of the technical analysis in the world isn't going to help you if the market reacts to a company's product liability lawsuit and the stock heads south. But, if your trading strategy says it's time to buy or sell, then it's time to buy or sell.
  6. Question everything your read and everything you hear. Don't follow anyone, anywhere, as long as it's your money that is at risk. Hot tips tend to become hot flops when it's all said and done. We live in a "pump and dump" world, stay clear of rumors.
  7. If you have to ask you, then don't do the trade. If your system says "No", then it's no -- no matter how good it looks. The whole reason to have treading rules is so you are not tempted to make decisions based upon fear or greed. let your system guide you.
  8. Never respond to fear or greed. No one can beat the market every time. Make the rights moves in a bull and bear market and you could see returns of 300%+.
  9. Make sure that you have the "right stuff" to be a full time trader. Don't trade with "scared money". Don't trade blindly without a system. Don't borrow money to trade. Have the guts to stay with your system even when it seems to be going against you. If you keep loosing, stop trading and see what you are doing wrong. Chances are you stopped following your system.
  10. There is more to life than trading the stock market. Get out, go for walks, spend time with your family. Live, breathe, eat, swim, go to a movie. Your brain needs a break!
I wish that this were all you needed to know to trade a home full time. Unfortunately, it isn't. However, nothing else that you learn, buy, or hear is going to do you much good if you don't know these 10 basic rules.
Sumber: http://www.stock-trading-advice.com/trading-for-living.html

Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah

JKSE 26 Okt 2011 - Cenderung Masih Naik

Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda. 
DISCLAIMER

Semalam DJI membentuk pola Arrow... signal akan ada big dan quick move... tergantung resistance apa support pola Arrow yang akan di tembus... kalau resistance yg ditembus berarti akan diikuti gerakan naik dan sebaliknya kalau support yang ditembus, maka DJI cenderung bergerak turun.

Saya pantau DJI, karena saat ini korelasinya dengan JKSE cukup kuat... alias JKSE masih mengekor gerakan DJI.

Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Manajemen Emosi - Emotions In Motion

Emotions In Motion by Janice Dorn, M.D., Ph.D.

Oct 24, 2011 Volume 28 Issue 8

You have to be able to control yourself. You can't let emotions get in the way of your thoughts and actions... Warren Buffett
One of the most difficult aspects of trading is emotional management. For many months, we have struggled through market and economies that are news-driven, volatile, and filled with uncertainty. For many, it’s been a real emotional roller coaster.  . To say "don't get emotional" is pointless because everyone has emotions around money.
What can you do about your emotions as they apply to trading and investing? Of all the books and papers I have read or written on trading psychology, there is one aspect that stands out most clearly to me. This is the condition of living in the past.  I believe that this is one of the most significant obstacles to trading success.
Why?  Because the brain remembers. The brain imprints loss or gain in a “memory” area called the temporal lobe, and generates fear or greed as a result of it. The larger the loss or the gain, the greater the neuronal imprint becomes. Losses are imprinted as fear and gains are imprinted as greed. Both are equally destructive to further success with trading.
The real culprit is memory. It is the memory of losses or gains that stay with the unsuccessful trader, causing continual mental sabotage and inability to move forward.
The best traders forget about a loss the minute they take it and move on. They are confident in their system and their ability to execute it. It is not about the money for these people. It is about finding a system that will bring them more profits than losses. The best traders know how to take losses and not become depressed, angry, jealous, disgusted or defeated. They know how to take gains without gloating, boasting, or becoming euphoric. They see only the trade they are about to enter---not the trade that just ended or the one that might be coming in the future.  All past trades are out of sight and out of mind. All future trades are an illusion.

This is a really difficult thing to do, but it must be done in order to move forward.  If you are unable to detach from the past and the future, you will continue to be a victim of fear and greed.
Fear doesn't form in a vacuum. It is a learned response to a particular event or probability. In the case of trading, when you have a trade that goes bad, the regret and frustration can carry over into the next trade. Often, the fear is so consuming, that you don't enter your next trade. Of course, Murphy's Law dictates that the trade you don't enter is the one you should have entered, which only compounds the existing emotional anguish.
Greed creates the opposite problem. With a couple of consecutive winning trades, the ego enlarges and invincible feelings overcome logic. This will ultimately lead you to trades that you normally would not have entered. Finding good trades is hard enough, while finding poor trades seems to get much easier after a couple of winners. Emotions cause 'perceptual distortion' where we only see the part of the picture that our beliefs allow us to see.
The instruction is to know who you are in this present moment.  You are the problem and you are the solution.  Living in the past or the future does nothing but stir up emotions that impact adversely your trading and other aspects of your life. It is said that fear blinds one to opportunity and greed blinds one to danger.  Make every effort to be fully present and you may be surprised at the outcome.  It’s the best way to defeat the enemy within you. 
The ability to be in the present moment is a major component of mental wellness…Abraham Maslow
Thanks and Good Trading!

Janice Dorn, M.D.,Ph.D.

About the Author
Janice Dorn, M.D. Ph.D. is a trader and trading psychiatrist.  She has written extensively on all aspects of trader psychology, longevity and wellness.   Additionally, she coaches her fellow traders.  Dr. Dorn also posts at her website: www.thetradingdoctor.com

Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah

JKSE dan DJI 24 Oct 2011 - Mau dan Sudah Break

Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda. 
DISCLAIMER



Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Indeks2 Dunia dan 2 Saham

Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda. 
DISCLAIMER


Indeks ASIA

Hampir semua indeks Asia berada di bawah resistance peak... bahkan SSEC China close di bawah support troughnya, kecuali JKSE yang sudah berada di atas dan terlihat sedang konsolidasi... dan kemungkinan terbesarnya JKSE akan mengikuti gerakan indeks2 Eropa dan Amerika.

Indeks EROPA

German, Inggris dan Prancis saat ini juga sudah berada di atas resistance peak dan sedang berkonsolidasi juga. Jika Senin nanti Eropa bergerak mengikuti Amerika, maka peluang JKSE bergerak mengikutinya juga semakin besar.

Indeks Amerika

Dow Jones, S&P 500 dan Amex Oil Indeks terlihat bergerak mendahului indeks Asia dan Eropa, karena pada tanggal 21 Oktober kemarin indeks2 Amerika kembali break up resistance peaknya, sehingga membuka peluang ke atas menuju resistance peak berikut (khusus untuk DJI dan JKSE lihat posting sebelumnya untuk melihat target2nya).

Gold dan Commodity Index lebih serupa dengan indeks Asia yang masih berada di bawah resistance peak.

2 Saham - ASII dan TLKM


Jika diperhatikan chartnya, maka ASII cenderung mengikuti gerakan JKSE, Eropa dan Amerika... sedangkan TLKM lebih mengikuti indeks Asia.

Dari chart2 ini saya berkesimpulan kalau JKSE, ASII, TLKM dan Indeks2 Eropa Senin 24 Oktober 2011 lebih berpeluang menguat. Demikian halnya dengan DJI masih berpotensi meneruskan penguatannya. Kecuali China yang agak meragukan, indeks2 Asia juga tampaknya akan menguat mengikuti DJI dan Eropa... kita lihat hari Senin apa yang akan terjadi.


Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah

Saturday, October 22, 2011

DJI 20 Okt 2011 - Belajar Elliot Wave Count dan Diagonal Pattern

Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda. 
DISCLAIMER

Ini potongan email saya ke milis:

Sekalian nanya kepada rekan pakar EW... Apakah benar terhitung dari highest May 2011 sampai lowest di Oktober 2011 pd DJI, wave count nya sudah kumplit 1-2-3-4-5 ? ... dan apakah benar antara wave 4 ke 5 bisa dikategorikan Diagonal Pattern in a Bear Market (by EWI) seperti gambar di bawah ?

Harusnya chart belajar ini sudah saya post kemarin-kemarin, tapi karena masih nunggu komentar dari milis yang belum datang juga, akhirnya saya post sekarang... moga-moga ndak salah ya chartnya.

Ini chart DJI nya:

Ini contoh Diagonal Pattern dari EWI:
Pada tanggal 21 Okt 2011, DJI break up peak resistance di angka 4, sehingga membuka peluang ke atas dengan target2 fibo seperti terlihat di chart... mudah2an berhasil... aamiin...

Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Target kalau di JKSE benar ada Double Bottom

Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda. 
DISCLAIMER

Ini copas email saya di milis Saham-Syariah tgl 07 Oktober 2011:

Mengenai Double Bottom... ini ada guidance ttg double bottom/top: " When you see a W or M pattern forming, you may have just discovered a money-making double bottom or double top pattern. These patterns are common reversal patterns used to suggest the current stock trend may be likely to shift. " ... Contoh pola Double/Triple Bottom terlampir.

Sepertinya JKSE sedang membentuk pola W ? ... kalau benar double bottom, maka resistancenya di 3579.66, kalau tembus target pattern DBottom = (3579.66 - 3256.44) +  3579.66 = 3902.88 ... kalau tidak tembus, masih ada kemungkinan akan membentuk triple bottom, kecuali harga ndlosor tembus 3256.44 dan 3217.95

Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah

JKSE 12 Oct 2011 - Break Up

Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda. 
DISCLAIMER

JKSE 12 Okt 2011 berhasil Break Up resistance dan berpeluang membuat Lilin BIRU... pergerakan naik ini masih sejalan dengan posting sebelumnya dimana target kenaikan JKSE ke 3936-4249 belum tercapai... artinya masih bisa naik.

Yang jadi pertanyaan, jika JKSE hari ini berhasil membuat Lilin Biru, apakah harga akan terus bergerak naik menuju resistance2 berikutnya... apakah ini bukan false break ? Kita lihat nanti sore, apakah JKSE kembali berhasil menembus resistancenya.

Seandainya hari ini turun, maka perhatikan support 3531... kalau ini ditembus dan close di bawahnya, maka better selamatkan profit dan posisi... jika tembus tapi masih close di atas 3531, saya akan HOLD atau mengurangi posisi dan melihat sikond besok.

Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah

Monday, October 10, 2011

JKSE 10 Okt 2011 - Besok masih naik ?

Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda. 
DISCLAIMER

Kemungkinan besar besok masih naik apalagi jika regional mendukung... tapi jika besok turun maka perhatikan support 3423.52 ... kalau ditembus dan close di bawahnya maka sebaiknya SOS dulu.


Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah

Thursday, October 06, 2011

EIDO 05 Okt 2011 - Developing Bat Bearish (BUY)

Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda. 
DISCLAIMER

OPTIMIS target pola tercapai... ANTISIPASI jika pola GAGAL alias TIDAK VALID LAGI...


EIDO adalah ETF indeks yang berisi saham-saham big cap penggerak JKSE, sehingga korelasinya sangat besar.
Detail komponen (saham2) EIDO bisa dilihat di sini:  http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/holdings/EIDO.htm?asofDt=2011-01-31

Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah

Tuesday, October 04, 2011

JKSE 03 Okt 2011 - Developing Bat Bearish (BUY)

Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda. 
DISCLAIMER

Semoga chart di bawah terus in-line dengan posting sebelumnya... aamiin...

Optimis-Antisipatif.

Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah