Belajar AFL Explo via email

Kebetulan besok libur dan kuota internet saya kayaknya cukup... maka khusus untuk besok mulai +/-jam 10 WIB... insya Allah saya menyediakan waktu untuk belajar bersama... khusus mengenai AFL Exploration/scanner... melalui email...

Waktu ini utamanya disediakan bagi yang sudah punya suatu rules/sistem in/out pasar (misal: crossing MA atau crossing MACD atau kombinasinya, dll) tapi menghadapi kendala bikin AFL Exploration/Scanner nya. Tidak untuk yang belum punya sistem dan tidak untuk bikin AFL lainnya.

Jika berminat... silahkan kirim rules, AFL oprekan, tampilan yang diinginkan dan kendala yang dihadapi. Saya akan tampung dulu dan akan menjawab sekaligus untuk pertanyaan yang sama. Mudah-mudahan saya bisa membantu.

Mulai dari sekarang anda sudah bisa mengirimkan email ke esyariah(at}gmail{dot/kom]


Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.

Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
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Hasil Exploration/Scanner 23 Mar 2009

Hasil Exploration/Scanner terbaru... ada Bull Bear Power dan Reversal Signal.


Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.

Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
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Source AFL / Bull & Bear Power + TRsV

Sebagai pemakai Amibroker asli... maka anda bisa akses ke "member zone" dengan terlebih dahulu mendaftar dan mendapatkan password dari Website AB.Jika sudah mendaftar maka bisa akses berbagai AFL Tips dari AB yang tidak boleh dishare ke non anggota/umum.

Salah satu AFL yang menarik adalah Bull & Bear Power + TRsV (True Range specified Volume)... dan menurut saya akan lebih menarik kalau dioprek...

Selamat mencoba...

Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.

Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
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AFL Linear Regression yang mudaan...

Ini AFL Linear Regression yang lebih mudaan... bisa langsung pake tapi bisa juga dioprek dulu untuk disesuaikan dengan keinginan... biar lebih berguna dalam TA kita...

_SECTION_BEGIN("Linear Regression Line w S Dev Channel");
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//
// Formula Name: Linear Regression Line w/ Std Deviation Channels
// Author/Uploader: Patrick Hargus
// E-mail:
// Date/Time Added: 2005-03-07 00:58:06
// Origin: Based on the Linear Regression Indicator found in TC2000 and the AB Lin Regression Drawing Tool.
// Keywords: linnear regression, standard deviation
// Level: medium
// Flags: indicator
// Formula URL: http://www.amibroker.com/library/formula.php?id=438
// Details URL: http://www.amibroker.com/library/detail.php?id=438
//
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//
// Plot a linear regression line of any price field available on a chart for a
// period determined by the user. 2 Channels are plotted above and below based
// on standard deviations of the linear regression line as determined by the
// user. A look back feature is also provided for examining how the indicator
// would have appeared on a chart X periods in the past. Designed for AB
// versions 4.63 and above using drag and drop feature with user variable
// Params.
//
// Various explorations based on crossovers, excursions and returns within the
// SD channels are easily added.
//
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------

// Linear Regression Line with 2 Standard Deviation Channels Plotted Above and Below
// Written by Patrick Hargus, with critical hints from Marcin Gorzynski, Amibroker.com Technical Support
// Designed for use with AB 4.63 beta and above, using drag and drop feature.
// Permits plotting a linear regression line of any price field available on the chart for a period determined by the user.
// 2 Channels, based on a standard deviation each determined by the user, are plotted above and below the linear regression line.
// A look back feature is also provided for examining how the indicator would have appeared on a chart X periods in the past.


P = ParamField("Price field",-1);
Daysback = Param("Period for Liner Regression Line",21,1,240,1);
shift = Param("Look back period",0,0,240,1);


// =============================== Math Formula =============================================================

x = Cum(1);
lastx = LastValue( x ) - shift;
aa = LastValue( Ref(LinRegIntercept( p, Daysback), -shift) );
bb = LastValue( Ref(LinRegSlope( p, Daysback ), -shift) );
y = Aa + bb * ( x - (Lastx - DaysBack +1 ) );


// ==================Plot the Linear Regression Line ==========================================================


LRColor = ParamColor("LR Color", colorCycle );
LRStyle = ParamStyle("LR Style");

LRLine = IIf( x > (lastx - Daysback) AND BarIndex() <>
Plot( LRLine , "LinReg", LRCOLOR, LRSTYLE ); // styleDots );

// ========================== Plot 1st SD Channel ===============================================================

SDP = Param("Standard Deviation", 1.5, 0, 6, 0.1);
SD = SDP/2;

width = LastValue( Ref(SD*StDev(p, Daysback),-shift) ); // THIS IS WHERE THE WIDTH OF THE CHANELS IS SET
SDU = IIf( x > (lastx - Daysback) AND BarIndex() <>
SDL = IIf( x > (lastx - Daysback) AND BarIndex() <>

SDColor = ParamColor("SD Color", colorCycle );
SDStyle = ParamStyle("SD Style");

Plot( SDU , "Upper Lin Reg", SDColor,SDStyle );
Plot( SDL , "Lower Lin Reg", SDColor,SDStyle );

// ========================== Plot 2d SD Channel ===============================================================

SDP2 = Param("2d Standard Deviation", 2.0, 0, 6, 0.1);
SD2 = SDP2/2;

width2 = LastValue( Ref(SD2*StDev(p, Daysback),-shift) ); // THIS IS WHERE THE WIDTH OF THE CHANELS IS SET
SDU2 = IIf( x > (lastx - Daysback) AND BarIndex() <>
SDL2 = IIf( x > (lastx - Daysback) AND BarIndex() <>

SDColor2 = ParamColor("2 SD Color", colorCycle );
SDStyle2 = ParamStyle("2 SD Style");

Plot( SDU2 , "Upper Lin Reg", SDColor2,SDStyle2 );
Plot( SDL2 , "Lower Lin Reg", SDColor2,SDStyle2 );

// ============================ End Indicator Code ==============================================================

_SECTION_END();




Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.

Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
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JKSE - Sesi I 19 Mar 2009

Kelihatannya SAT-ADOBOS gak muncul di file gambar... tapi di chart Ami ada... kenapa ya?













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Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
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Regression Channel - AFL

Apa manfaat Regression Channel bagi anda? Sudahkah RC standar Amibroker memenuhi kebutuhan anda?

Saya copy paste kan keterangan tentang RC dari Amibroker... ini dia:

Regression channels

Linear regression may sound intimidating, but the mathematical concept is a simple one. All this technique does is fit a straight line through a finite number of data points by minimizing the sum of the squared vertical distance between the line and each of the points. In our context, this means that if time is represented by days on the horizontal axis and the closing price on those days is plotted as dots on the vertical axis (a normal closing price chart), then we try to fit a straight line through those closing-price dots such that the total sum of the squared vertical distance between each closing price and the line are minimized. This would then be our best-fit line.

Raff regression channel Raff Regression Channels show the range prices can be expected to deviate from a Linear Regression trend line. Developed by Gilbert Raff, the regression channel is a line study the plots directly on the price chart. The Regression Channel provides a precise quantitative way to define a price trend and its boundaries. The Regression Channel is constructed by plotting two parallel, equidistant lines above and below a Linear Regression trend line.

The distance between the channel lines to the regression line is the greatest distance that any one high or low price is from the regression line.

Raff Regression Channels contain price movement, with the bottom channel line providing support and the top channel line providing resistance. Prices may extend outside of the channel for a short period of time. However, if prices remain outside the channel for a long period of time, a reversal in trend may be imminent.

Standar Regression Channel bisa diplot langsung ke chart, dimana ada 3 line:

1. Regression Line (di tengah),
   
2. Support Line (di bawah) dan
   
3. Resistance Line (di atas).

Tahukah anda bahwa di AFL Library juga ada AFL RC, dimana ia menghasilkan 3 line itu lebih tepat dalam mencari Peak dan Trough dalam suatu periode lookback. Berikut script AFL nya (bisa juga dicari di AFL Library):

/* Linear Regression Slope */
/* Geoff Mulhall 25-May-2002 */
/* Refer www.equis.com/free/taaz/linearregression.html */
/* for a mathematical explanation of the formulae */

N = LastValue(LLVBars(Low,190)); // lookback period - can be set by the user if necessary
Start = 1;

X = Cum(Start); // Set up the x cordinate array of the Linear Regression Line
Y = Close; // Set the y co-ordinate of the Linear Regression line

/* Calculate the slope (bconst) and the y intercept (aconst) of the line */

SUMX = LastValue(Sum(X,N));
SUMY = LastValue(Sum(Y,N));
SUMXY = LastValue(Sum(X*Y,N));
SUMXSqd = LastValue(Sum(X*X,N));
SUMSqdX = LastValue(SUMX * SUMX);

bconst = (N * SUMXY - SUMX * SUMY)/(N * SUMXSqd - SUMSqdX);
aconst = (SUMY - bconst * (SUMX))/N;

/* Force the x value to be very negative so the graph does not apear before the lookback period */

Domain = IIf ( X > LastValue(X) - N, 1 , -1e10);
Xvar = X * Domain;

/* Linear Regression Line */

Yvar = aconst + bconst * Xvar;

/* Plot the graphs */

GraphXSpace = 10;
MaxGraph=4;

/* Candle chart */
Graph0 = Close;
Graph0Style = 64;
Graph0Color = 43;

/* Linear Regression Lines */
Graph1 = Yvar;
Graph2 = Yvar - LastValue(HHV(Yvar - Low,N));
Graph3 = Yvar + LastValue(HHV(High - Yvar,N));

Graph1Style = 1;
Graph1Color = 2;
Graph2Style = 1;
Graph2Color = 2;
Graph3Style = 1;
Graph3Color = 2;

Menurut Geoff Mulhall (pembuatnya), AFL ini sudah obsolete dengan adanya Regression Channels di Amibroker.

Tapi dengan sedikit kreatifitas dan sedikit kemampuan ngoprek, bisa saja AFL yang obsolete ini dioprek sehingga hasilnya akan lebih baik dan lebih bermanfaat.

Idenya: AFL itu ditambah dengan lines baru dari angka2 "sakti" Fibonacci... Ini cuma ide... jika tertarik, silahkan dioprek, jika tidak, lupakan saja ide ini...

Yuk kita ngoprek...

==========

Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.

Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
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TOP 10 MISTAKES by Vantage Point

Nasehat dari Vantage Point (ada aroma iklan nya sih...)... tapi bisa berguna dalam trading / investing kita di saham... meskipun ini dari future trading... ini dia:

======================================

Weather Today’s Financial Storm by Avoiding These TOP 10 MISTAKES
by Vantage Point - Intermarket Analysis Software.


Achieving success in futures trading often requires avoiding numerous pitfalls more than seeking out and executing winning trades. So what are 10 of the more prevalent mistakes that traders make? In no particular order of importance:

1. Failure to have a trading plan in place before a trade is executed. When you enter a trade, you should know when or where you will exit the trade or how much risk exposure your account has. It’s your trading business plan.
2. Inadequate tools or resources to develop a trading plan. Jumping into trading mayseem easy but, to be successful, you need education and reliable tools to understandrelationships among markets and to develop asound decision-making process based on cluesand strategies provided by a trading tool likeVantagePoint.
3. Inadequate capital assets or improper money management. You can trade successfully with almost any size account, but you needto size your trade to the size of your account. Don’t over-trade with too many markets or positions and don’t gun for those highly risky "home-run" trades that involve too much trading capital at one time.
4. Expectations that are too high, too soon. You can’t become a successful doctor or lawyer or business owner in the first couple years of the practice. It takes hard work and perseverance; trading futures is no different.
5. Failure to use protective stops. Protective stops aren’t perfect – no money management tools in futures are – but they give you an idea how much money you are risking on a trade, should the market not act as you expect. VantagePoint provides several unique indicators to improve stop placement.
   
6. Lack of "patience" and "discipline." Don't trade just for the sake of trading or because you haven't traded for a while. Let those very good trading setups come to you, then act upon them in a prudent way.
7. Trading against the trend or trying to pick market tops and bottoms. Sure, you want to buy low and sell high (or vice versa), but the best advice for most traders is still to trade with the trend. VantagePoint’s predicted moving average crossovers can help you identify trend reversals.
8. Letting losing positions ride too long. Successful traders do not sit on losing positions for long. Instead, they take their losses (usually minimal) and move on to the next potential trading setup. A tool like VantagePoint’s Scan for Opportunities can help you avoid losers by spotting trades that meet your criteria.
9. Failure to accept complete responsibility for your own actions. Don’t blame your broker or the market or something else for a losing trade. You make the trading decisions; you are responsible for your own success or failure.
10. Not getting a bigger-picture perspective on a market. Look at a longer-term chart than the period you are trading to see what history says about your market. This puts current market action in the context of overall market action.
    

==========================

Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.

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ES
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PTBA - Weekly Chart 17 Mar 2009

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ES
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DJI dan JKSE _ 12 Mar 2009

Kabar DJI dari Analyst Future:
DOW (JUN) 03/13/2009: Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The intermediate trend could be turning up with the close back above the 18-day moving average. The outside day up is a positive signal. There could be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The near-term upside objective is at 7362. The next area of resistance is around 7275 and 7362, while 1st support hits today at 6955 and below there at 6723.

Peringatan Analyst Investopedia:
While the overall fundamental stories with the stocks mentioned here may be sound - and even that is up for debate - long investors should shy away from these names until it becomes clear that the economy is rebounding and that the sectors highlighted here are gaining strength. An early entry into these names and your investment could fall victim to a bear attack. (Potongan ini tidak diedit)

Kabar JKSE dari Saham Pilihan Ku
















========================

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ES
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Kendala Bikin AFL Sederhana

Sebagai user Ami, sepertinya AFL merupakan suatu yang harus dikuasai, paling tidak fungsi2 yang gampang dan umum dipakai. Atau yang bisa dipelajari dari menu help dengan "mengoprek" AFL yang sudah jadi, semisal yang ada di AFL Library atau dari ide sendiri.

Sebagai contoh: si A ingin candle diberi warna biru jika O=L dan warna kuning jika O=H. Sedangkan candle yang lain tetap warna hijau jika close naik dan merah jika turun dari hari kemarin. Si A sudah coba buat AFL-nya sendiri, tapi gak bisa-bisa.

Apakah Anda bisa membantu si A ? atau dari pemakaian Ami selama ini, Anda juga menghadapi kendala seperti si A dalam pembuatan AFL ?

Khasus ini khusus buat users yang menghadapi kendala seperti si A... yang sudah bisa, tolong jangan dibocorin dulu... untuk memberi kesempatan kepada yang belum bisa.


Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
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JKSE - HSI - DJI _ Monthly View_ 6 Maret 2009

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ES
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JKSE Daily_ 5 Mar 2009

JKSE sinyalnya positif, tapi masih lemah...

Monthly chart JKSE, HSI dan DJI besok Insya Allah dipost... mana di antara ketiganya yang lebih segar?



Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.

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ES
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Van K. Tharp mengatakan.....

"Trading and investing are very simple processes and we human beings try to make it into something much more complex. Unfortunately, we have a lot of biases that enter into trading decisions.

"I believe people get exactly what they want out of the markets and most people are afraid of success or failure. As a result, they tend to resist change and continue to follow their natural biases and lose in the markets. When you get rid of the fear, you tend to get rid of the biases.

"As for risk, most people don't understand it, including a lot of professionals, and what's really interesting is that once you understand risk and portfolio management, you can design a trading system with almost any level of performance." �Van K. Tharp

==================
Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.

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ES
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DJI 03 Mar 2009

DJI nyangkut di Fibo 127,2% dan Bottom Line dari garis regresi.
Apa dia akan terus menembus apa mantul di situ?
Yang jelas warna Lilin masih merah dan Reva sudah mulai berbalik (bosan kali di bawah terus... hehehe...).

Kita tunggu nanti malam... apa dia ganti warna atau masih senang dengan warna merah?


Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.

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ES
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Layak Diwaspadai_ ANTM dan ELTY

Warna lilin ANTM adalah Putih. Artinya neutral, bisa naik bisa turun. Jadi hari ini konfirmasi. Warna Volume masih merah. Reva sudah di bottom. Perhatikan juga Candlestick yang terbentuk, close thdp Bollinger Band, close di bawah MA9 menunjukkan bearish dalam jangka pendek, dan volume sdg nge-trend.

Cara "membaca" yang sama bisa diterapkan ke chart ELTY.

Dua-duanya belum membentuk lilin reversal.


Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.

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ES
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Rules For Day-trading

Trader Mark Cook Reveals His Rules For Day-trading

by: Jim Wyckoff

A day trader is a cross between an extrovert and an introvert, with both characteristics in balance, according to Mark Cook, a veteran trader from East Sparta, Ohio.

“The introvert aspect is depicted by the disciplined workaholic with a reclusive concentration. The extrovert aspect is depicted by an aggressive, competitive, self-motivated individual striving to be the best in a selective profession,” said Cook.

Cook won the 1992 U.S. Investment Championship with a 563% return on his money. He is a featured speaker at the Telerate Seminars Technical Analysis Group (TAG 20) conference held here this weekend.

Each trading day, “I am a creature of habit, going through a daily ritual before the markets open. I outline in detail all three possible scenarios for that day: up, down or sideways. I assign a probability to that scenario and make a written strategy plan, which has been incorporated into a trading fax service that is devoted to teaching people how to trade. Thus, a disciplined trading plan is imposed on me.”

Every day trader must be “flexible, alert and feisty,” said Cook. The flexibility must be used to shift from being long to being short “literally within seconds.” The alertness is used for observing price movements that are an aberration from the norm, he said. “Feistiness is the savvy aggressiveness to fight back with a vengeance to regain money you lost. I don’t know how many times I’ve seen people lose money in the morning and quit. My most profitable days are when I lose money in the morning and stay in because I want to get it back.”

For 12 years, Cook has kept a daily diary of trading patterns he has observed. He said the diary is “priceless” because price patterns occur much more frequently than most realize. Regarding keeping a diary, Cook uses the adage: “If you don’t know history, you’re doomed to repeat it.”

The following are Cook’s seven major rules for day trading:

1. DO NOT TRADE THE LAST HOUR OF THE DAY IN THE S&P 500 FUTURES MARKET. The probabilities of a successful trade diminish in this timeframe due to the impulsive and reckless buying and selling by institutions just because they didn’t get their trading done earlier, said Cook.

2. IF YOU DON’T LIKE THE TRADE YOU’RE HOLDING, GET OUT.

3. AFTER TWO HOURS OF TRADING, ASK YOURSELF: “DO I FEEL GOOD ABOUT MY TRADING TODAY?” Once two hours have passed, Cook says a day trader should have made at least two, or perhaps more, trades, “but enough to evaluate what you have done.” If the trader feels good about the day’s trading, continue. If not, stop trading that day.

4. ALL CYLINDERS OF THE ENGINE MUST BE RUNNING EFFICIENTLY. “Day-trading is a job, and your paycheck is determined by your ability. You can only maximize your ability if you have all the information you need to make trading decisions. “If a piece of equipment that one uses for trading is not working, stop trading.

5. HAVE COMPLETE FAITH IN YOUR INDICATORS. “This is a must for success,” said Cook. “Many times your indicators give you a buy or sell signal, and you don’t follow it because you don’t have the confidence the signal is right this time. Successful day traders believe in their indicators, but also are aware that nothing is 100% foolproof.”

6. TO ANYONE WHO ASPIRES TO BECOME A DAY TRADER, OBSERVE THOSE WHO ARE SUCCESSFUL. “Any information you can procure on the trading philosophies, mechanics and techniques is well worth your while.”

7. DAY-TRADING IS A LONG-TERM COMMITMENT. “I fervently believe it takes several years to become a true professional,” said Cook.

========================

Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.

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ES
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Lilin dan Volume WARNA WARNI_Introduce

Rumah Produksi Saham Pilihan Ku, setelah menghasilkan indikator REVA - kini Proudly Presents - LILIN REVERSAL DAN VOLUME REVERSAL WARNA WARNI - sebagai hadiah untuk nanda Refa untuk didedikasikan ke blog Saham Pilihan Ku.







































































Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.

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ES
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Update AFL for Sell

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ES
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JKSE dan DJI_27 Feb 2009

Sepertinya JKSE mau ke atas dengan menembus resistance yang ada. Tapi besok Low nya gak boleh lebih kecil dari 1280.90, kalau tembus dia ke bawah lagi atau bikin lilin reversal lagi, syaratnya High nya tembus 1293.95, dengan kata lain besok ada tiga kemungkinan:
1. L > 1280.90 dan H > 1293.95 = JKSE ke atas.
2. L < 1280.90 dan H > 1293.95 = JKSE ke samping bikin sinyal reversal baru.
3. L < 1280.90 dan H < 1293.95 = JKSE ke bawah.

Sedangkan DJI, mau turun dikit lagi sampai di 6936.45, kalau gak jebol dia ke atas dan berangkat dari titik itu melalui hambatan yang ada di gambar. Target pertama ngelewati 7247.67 dan terus dengan hambantan yang ada. Kalau 6936.45 jebol... hii... ngeri... dia akan ke 4939.01

Semoga datanya benar dan TA ini mendekati kenyataan, karena bagaimanapun... pasar punya kehendak sendiri dan itu suka-sukanya dia. Kalau tidak siap dengan MM yang ketat dan Psikologi yang stabil... mendingan jadi penonton aja...





























Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.

Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
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