Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Monday, January 19, 2009
Potret JKSE _ 19 Jan 2009
Meskipun ditutup minus dan BUY Signal belum muncul... semoga besok JKSE mantul ke atas garis Fibo...
Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
JKSE_19 Jan 2009 Sekitar jam 15:10 Gann S&R
Mudah-mudahan JKSE bisa Close di atas Garis Hijau dan Buy Signal keluar. Kita lihat nanti sore.Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Pentingnya Discipline
Semua sudah tau bahwa Disipline sangat penting dalam trading. Berikut adalah potongan dari apa yang dikatakan David Jenyns tentang Disipline :
Unfortunately for most traders success is difficult to achieve.
The stats suggest that around 80% of traders fail in the market.
Personally, I believe this figure is higher.
Do you wonder what is the difference between the 10-20% of people who get it "right" as opposed to the vast majority lose out?
If you ask anybody that studies trading for any period of
time they will answer - "Your psychology."
Quite simply, your psychology will determine whether you
have the discipline to follow your trading system or not.
Unfortunately, most traders naturally gravitate to breaking
time-tested trading rules - you may have even experienced it
yourself.
Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Unfortunately for most traders success is difficult to achieve.
The stats suggest that around 80% of traders fail in the market.
Personally, I believe this figure is higher.
Do you wonder what is the difference between the 10-20% of people who get it "right" as opposed to the vast majority lose out?
If you ask anybody that studies trading for any period of
time they will answer - "Your psychology."
Quite simply, your psychology will determine whether you
have the discipline to follow your trading system or not.
Unfortunately, most traders naturally gravitate to breaking
time-tested trading rules - you may have even experienced it
yourself.
Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Belajar Gann Chart
Sebagai bahan pelajaran adalah chart LPKR yang menunjukkan BUY Signal pada 16 Jan 2009. Di samping itu juga pake chart SMGR dan TLKM.
Saya belum ngerti Gann Teori... jadi narik garisnya berdasarkan Gann Square dan Gann Fan (ada di software Ami) serta AFL Gann Swing Chart (ada di Amibroker AFL Library).
Hasilnya Sbb:
1. Buy Sinal pada LPKR 16 Jan 2009
2. Belajar Gann Chart - LPKR SMGR dan TLKM.
Sepertinya banyak garis Support & Resistance yang terbentuk, bahkan sampai di masa yang akan datang. Benarkah?
Keterangan mengenai Gann saya ambil dari www.investopedia.com dan ini sebagiannya:
Here's how his techniques work. Gann based predictions of price movements on three premises:
• Price, time and range are the only three factors to consider.
• The markets are cyclical in nature.
• The markets are geometric in design and in function.
Based on these three premises, Gann's strategies revolved around three general areas of prediction:
• Price study– This uses support and resistance lines, pivot points and angles.
• Time study – This looks at historically reoccurring dates, derived by natural and social means.
• Pattern study – This looks at market swings using trendlines and reversal patterns.
Figures such as these are the building blocks of the Gann studies.
Constructing Gann Angles
Before we begin, it is important to realize that this form of analysis - like most forms of technical analysis - is not set in stone but constructed out of empirical methods. Without further ado, here is the process used to construct a Gann angle:
1. Determine the time units - This is one of the empirical processes. One common way to determine a time unit is to study the stock's chart and take note of distances in which price movements occur. Then, simply put the angles to the test and determine their accuracy. Most people use intermediate-term (such as one to three-month) charts for this as opposed to long-term (multi-year) or short-term (one to seven-day) charts. This is because, in most cases, the intermediate-term charts produce the optimal amount of patterns.
2. Determine the high or low from which to draw the Gann lines - This is the second empirical process, and the most common way to accomplish it is to use other forms of technical analysis--such as Fibonacci levels or pivot points. Gann himself, however, used what he called "vibrations" or "price swings." He determined these by analyzing charts using mathematical theories like Fibonacci.
3. Determine which pattern to use - The two most common patterns are the 1x1 (left figure above), the 1x2 (right figure above), and the 2x1. These are simply variations in the slope of the line. For example, the 1x2 is half the slope of the 1x1. The numbers simply refer to the number of units.
4. Draw the patterns - The direction would be either downward and to the right from a high point, or upward and to the right from a low point.
5. Look for repeat patterns further down the chart – Remember this technique is based on the premise that markets are cyclical.
Again, this requires some fine-tuning with experience in order to perfect. Because of this, the results will vary from person to person. Some people, like Gann, will experience extraordinary success, while others - who don't use such refined techniques - will experience sub-par returns. However, if the system is followed and sufficient research is put into finding the optimal requirements, above-average returns should be attainable. But remember, technical analysis is an odds game -add more technical indicators to increase your chances of a successful trade.
Using Gann Angles
Gann angles are most commonly used as support and resistance lines. But many studies have support and resistance lines. What makes this one so important? Well, Gann angles let you add a new dimension to these important levels - they can be diagonal.
Here you can see how Gann angles can be used to form support and resistance levels. Diagonal trendlines are commonly used to determine times to add to existing long positions, to determine new lows and highs (by finding significant breaks of the trend line), and to help discern the overall trend.
Conclusion
Is it possible to predict the future? W.D. Gann probably thought so, and seemingly proved it with his wildly successful returns. The system is relatively simple to use, but difficult to master. After all, it was Gann's uncanny ability to fine-tune his techniques that led him to enormous profits - the average investor is not likely to obtain these kinds of returns. Like many technical tools, Gann angles are best used in conjunction with other tools to predict price movements and profit.
Selengkapnya kunjungi www.investopedia.com dan mari terus belajar.
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Saya belum ngerti Gann Teori... jadi narik garisnya berdasarkan Gann Square dan Gann Fan (ada di software Ami) serta AFL Gann Swing Chart (ada di Amibroker AFL Library).
Hasilnya Sbb:
1. Buy Sinal pada LPKR 16 Jan 2009
2. Belajar Gann Chart - LPKR SMGR dan TLKM.
Sepertinya banyak garis Support & Resistance yang terbentuk, bahkan sampai di masa yang akan datang. Benarkah?
Keterangan mengenai Gann saya ambil dari www.investopedia.com dan ini sebagiannya:
Here's how his techniques work. Gann based predictions of price movements on three premises:
• Price, time and range are the only three factors to consider.
• The markets are cyclical in nature.
• The markets are geometric in design and in function.
Based on these three premises, Gann's strategies revolved around three general areas of prediction:
• Price study– This uses support and resistance lines, pivot points and angles.
• Time study – This looks at historically reoccurring dates, derived by natural and social means.
• Pattern study – This looks at market swings using trendlines and reversal patterns.
Figures such as these are the building blocks of the Gann studies.Constructing Gann Angles
Before we begin, it is important to realize that this form of analysis - like most forms of technical analysis - is not set in stone but constructed out of empirical methods. Without further ado, here is the process used to construct a Gann angle:
1. Determine the time units - This is one of the empirical processes. One common way to determine a time unit is to study the stock's chart and take note of distances in which price movements occur. Then, simply put the angles to the test and determine their accuracy. Most people use intermediate-term (such as one to three-month) charts for this as opposed to long-term (multi-year) or short-term (one to seven-day) charts. This is because, in most cases, the intermediate-term charts produce the optimal amount of patterns.
2. Determine the high or low from which to draw the Gann lines - This is the second empirical process, and the most common way to accomplish it is to use other forms of technical analysis--such as Fibonacci levels or pivot points. Gann himself, however, used what he called "vibrations" or "price swings." He determined these by analyzing charts using mathematical theories like Fibonacci.
3. Determine which pattern to use - The two most common patterns are the 1x1 (left figure above), the 1x2 (right figure above), and the 2x1. These are simply variations in the slope of the line. For example, the 1x2 is half the slope of the 1x1. The numbers simply refer to the number of units.
4. Draw the patterns - The direction would be either downward and to the right from a high point, or upward and to the right from a low point.
5. Look for repeat patterns further down the chart – Remember this technique is based on the premise that markets are cyclical.
Again, this requires some fine-tuning with experience in order to perfect. Because of this, the results will vary from person to person. Some people, like Gann, will experience extraordinary success, while others - who don't use such refined techniques - will experience sub-par returns. However, if the system is followed and sufficient research is put into finding the optimal requirements, above-average returns should be attainable. But remember, technical analysis is an odds game -add more technical indicators to increase your chances of a successful trade.
Using Gann Angles
Gann angles are most commonly used as support and resistance lines. But many studies have support and resistance lines. What makes this one so important? Well, Gann angles let you add a new dimension to these important levels - they can be diagonal.
Here you can see how Gann angles can be used to form support and resistance levels. Diagonal trendlines are commonly used to determine times to add to existing long positions, to determine new lows and highs (by finding significant breaks of the trend line), and to help discern the overall trend.Conclusion
Is it possible to predict the future? W.D. Gann probably thought so, and seemingly proved it with his wildly successful returns. The system is relatively simple to use, but difficult to master. After all, it was Gann's uncanny ability to fine-tune his techniques that led him to enormous profits - the average investor is not likely to obtain these kinds of returns. Like many technical tools, Gann angles are best used in conjunction with other tools to predict price movements and profit.
Selengkapnya kunjungi www.investopedia.com dan mari terus belajar.
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Potret Divergence SMGR & TLKM - 16 Jan 2009
Setelah membuat Divergence, tgl 16 Jan 2009 SMGR membentuk Lilin Bullish Inverted Hammer dan TLKM membentuk Lilin Bullish Harami.
Tapi MA5 belum golden cross, dan BUY Signal belum keluar.
Hati-hati dalam memilih saham, selalu recek dengan chart Anda, pilih yang cocok saja dan jangan lupa MM dipasang di Trading Plan serta Be Discipline.
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Auto Rejection (AR) Baru - Berlaku 19 Jan 2009
Friday, January 16, 2009
Potret Divergence SMGR & TLKM - 15 Jan 2009
Mudah2an DIVERGENCE ini valid sehingga hari ini atau dalam waktu dekat terjadi reversal up pada SMGR & TLKM.
LilinKecil SMGR secara psikologis pasar juga mendukung dengan buyer sudah lebih kuat dari seller. Sedangkan LililKecil TLKM membentuk Bearish Separating Lines.
Negatifnya MA5 dead cross MA21 dan Support di MA55 mudah2an kuat.
Buy sinyal juga belum keluar, jadi hati-hati dan ingat selalu MM karena pasar selalu benar.
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Seruan dari pimpinan Hizbullah
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Neneng R
Date: 2009/1/14
Subject: [tarbiyah-islam] Seruan dari pimpinan Hizbullah
To: tarbiyah-islam@yahoogroups.com
Assalamu alaikum,
Pimpinan Hizbullah libanon syd Hasan Nasrallah meminta :
Seluruh muslim utk MELAFADZKAN QS. AL-FATH ayat 26-27. MALAM INI..
tolong disebarkan agar Israel hancur. skrg masjid Al Aqsa Sdg diserang oleh Israel Skutu.
Mhn disebarkan min. ke 10 orang. jangan dihapus klo blom disebarkan. ini amanat.
Karena hanya doa adalah sumbangan terakhir bagi kita jika kita tidak dapat menyumbang tenaga/raga dan doa
Syukron
Wassalamu alaikum
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
From: Neneng R
Date: 2009/1/14
Subject: [tarbiyah-islam] Seruan dari pimpinan Hizbullah
To: tarbiyah-islam@yahoogroups.com
Assalamu alaikum,
Pimpinan Hizbullah libanon syd Hasan Nasrallah meminta :
Seluruh muslim utk MELAFADZKAN QS. AL-FATH ayat 26-27. MALAM INI..
tolong disebarkan agar Israel hancur. skrg masjid Al Aqsa Sdg diserang oleh Israel Skutu.
Mhn disebarkan min. ke 10 orang. jangan dihapus klo blom disebarkan. ini amanat.
Karena hanya doa adalah sumbangan terakhir bagi kita jika kita tidak dapat menyumbang tenaga/raga dan doa
Syukron
Wassalamu alaikum
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Belajar AFL MM - Koreksi 14 Jan 2009
Maaf... terpaksa dalam bentuk image. Sudah dicoba pake text tapi "dipotong" terus. Saya bukan ahli komputer, jadi dipost dalam bentuk image aja.
Koreksi AFL MM sbb:
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Koreksi AFL MM sbb:
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Intro to TA
Meskipun materi artikel ini ditulis oleh Forex.com, tetapi bisa juga dipakai dalam saham. Untuk pemula ini sebagai perkenalan, dan untuk yang sudah lama belajar TA ini bisa sebagai “reminder”.
INTRODUCTION TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Provided by Forex.com
Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by looking at purely market-generated data. Price data from a particular market is most commonly the type of information analyzed by a technician, though most will also keep a close watch on volume and open interest in futures contracts. The bottom line when utilizing any type of analytical method, technical or otherwise, is to stick to the basics, which are methodologies with a proven track record over a long period. After finding a trading system that works for you, the more esoteric fields of study can then be incorporated into your trading toolbox.
Almost every trader uses some form of technical analysis. Even the most reverent follower of market fundamentals is likely to glance at price charts before executing a trade. At their most basic level, these charts help traders determine ideal entry and exit points for a trade. They provide a visual representation of the historical price action of whatever is being studied. As such, traders can look at a chart and know if they are buying at a fair price (based on the price history of a particular market), selling at a cyclical top or perhaps throwing their capital into a choppy, sideways market. These are just a few market conditions that charts identify for a trader. Depending on their level of sophistication, charts can also help much more advanced studies of the markets.
On the surface, it might appear that technicians ignore the fundamentals of the market while surrounding themselves with charts and data tables. However, a technical trader will tell you that all of the fundamentals are already represented in the price. They are not so much concerned that a natural disaster or an awful inflation number caused a recent spike in prices as much as how that price action fits into a pattern or trend. And much more to the point, how that pattern can be used to predict future prices.
Technical analysis assumes that:
• All market fundamentals are depicted in the actual market data. So the actual market fundamentals and various factors, such as the differing opinions, hopes, fears, and moods of market participants, need not be studied.
• History repeats itself and therefore markets move in fairly predictable, or at least quantifiable, patterns. These patterns, generated by price movement, are called signals. The goal in technical analysis is to uncover the signals given off in a current market by examining past market signals.
• Prices move in trends. Technicians typically do not believe that price fluctuations are random and unpredictable. Prices can move in one of three directions, up, down or sideways. Once a trend in any of these directions is established, it usually will continue for some period.
The building blocks of any technical analysis system include price charts, volume charts, and a host of other mathematical representations of market patterns and behaviors. Most often called studies, these mathematical manipulations of various types of market data are used to determine the strength and sustainability of a particular trend. So, rather than simply relying on price charts to forecast future market values, technicians will also use a variety of other technical tools before entering a trade.
As in all other aspects of trading, be very disciplined when using technical analysis. Too often, a trader will fail to sell or buy into a market even after it has reached a price that his or her technical studies identified as an entry or exit point. This is because it is hard to screen out the fundamental realities that led to the price movement in the first place.
As an example, let's assume you are long USD vs. euro and have established your stop/loss 30 pips away from your entry point. However, if some unforeseen factor is responsible for pushing the USD through your stop/loss level you might be inclined to hold this position just a bit longer in the hopes that it turns back into a winner. It is very hard to make the decision to cut your losses and even harder to resist the temptation to book profits too early on a winning trade. This is called leaving money on the table. A common mistake is to ride a loser too long in the hopes it comes back and to cut a winner way too early. If you use technical analysis to establish entry and exit levels, be very disciplined in following through on your original trading plan.
Price charts
Chart patterns
There are a variety of charts that show price action. The most common are bar charts. Each bar will represent one period of time and that period can be anything from one minute to one month to several years. These charts will show distinct price patterns that develop over time.
Candlestick patterns Like bar charts patterns, candlestick patterns can be used to forecast the market. Because of their colored bodies, candlesticks provide greater visual detail in their chart patterns than bar charts.
Point & figure patterns Point and figure patterns are essentially the same patterns found in bar charts but Xs and Os are used to market changes in price direction. In addition, point and figure charts make no use of time scales to indicate the particular day associated with certain price action.
Technical Indicators
Here are a few of the more common types of indicators used in technical analysis:
Trend indicators Trend is a term used to describe the persistence of price movement in one direction over time. Trends move in three directions: up, down and sideways. Trend indicators smooth variable price data to create a composite of market direction. (Example: Moving Averages, Trend lines)
Strength indicators Market strength describes the intensity of market opinion with reference to a price by examining the market positions taken by various market participants. Volume or open interest are the basic ingredients of this indicator. Their signals are coincident or leading the market. (Example: Volume)
Volatility indicators Volatility is a general term used to describe the magnitude, or size, of day-to-day price fluctuations independent of their direction. Generally, changes in volatility tend to lead changes in prices. (Example: Bollinger Bands)
Cycle indicators A cycle is a term to indicate repeating patterns of market movement, specific to recurrent events, such as seasons, elections, etc. Many markets have a tendency to move in cyclical patterns. Cycle indicators determine the timing of a particular market patterns. (Example: Elliott Wave)
Support/resistance indicators Support and resistance describes the price levels where markets repeatedly rise or fall and then reverse. This phenomenon is attributed to basic supply and demand. (Example: Trend Lines)
Momentum indicators Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Momentum indicators determine the strength or weakness of a trend as it progresses over time. Momentum is highest at the beginning of a trend and lowest at trend turning points. Any divergence of directions in price and momentum is a warning of weakness; if price extremes occur with weak momentum, it signals an end of movement in that direction. If momentum is trending strongly and prices are flat, it signals a potential change in price direction. (Example: Stochastic, MACD, RSI)
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
INTRODUCTION TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Provided by Forex.com
Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by looking at purely market-generated data. Price data from a particular market is most commonly the type of information analyzed by a technician, though most will also keep a close watch on volume and open interest in futures contracts. The bottom line when utilizing any type of analytical method, technical or otherwise, is to stick to the basics, which are methodologies with a proven track record over a long period. After finding a trading system that works for you, the more esoteric fields of study can then be incorporated into your trading toolbox.
Almost every trader uses some form of technical analysis. Even the most reverent follower of market fundamentals is likely to glance at price charts before executing a trade. At their most basic level, these charts help traders determine ideal entry and exit points for a trade. They provide a visual representation of the historical price action of whatever is being studied. As such, traders can look at a chart and know if they are buying at a fair price (based on the price history of a particular market), selling at a cyclical top or perhaps throwing their capital into a choppy, sideways market. These are just a few market conditions that charts identify for a trader. Depending on their level of sophistication, charts can also help much more advanced studies of the markets.
On the surface, it might appear that technicians ignore the fundamentals of the market while surrounding themselves with charts and data tables. However, a technical trader will tell you that all of the fundamentals are already represented in the price. They are not so much concerned that a natural disaster or an awful inflation number caused a recent spike in prices as much as how that price action fits into a pattern or trend. And much more to the point, how that pattern can be used to predict future prices.
Technical analysis assumes that:
• All market fundamentals are depicted in the actual market data. So the actual market fundamentals and various factors, such as the differing opinions, hopes, fears, and moods of market participants, need not be studied.
• History repeats itself and therefore markets move in fairly predictable, or at least quantifiable, patterns. These patterns, generated by price movement, are called signals. The goal in technical analysis is to uncover the signals given off in a current market by examining past market signals.
• Prices move in trends. Technicians typically do not believe that price fluctuations are random and unpredictable. Prices can move in one of three directions, up, down or sideways. Once a trend in any of these directions is established, it usually will continue for some period.
The building blocks of any technical analysis system include price charts, volume charts, and a host of other mathematical representations of market patterns and behaviors. Most often called studies, these mathematical manipulations of various types of market data are used to determine the strength and sustainability of a particular trend. So, rather than simply relying on price charts to forecast future market values, technicians will also use a variety of other technical tools before entering a trade.
As in all other aspects of trading, be very disciplined when using technical analysis. Too often, a trader will fail to sell or buy into a market even after it has reached a price that his or her technical studies identified as an entry or exit point. This is because it is hard to screen out the fundamental realities that led to the price movement in the first place.
As an example, let's assume you are long USD vs. euro and have established your stop/loss 30 pips away from your entry point. However, if some unforeseen factor is responsible for pushing the USD through your stop/loss level you might be inclined to hold this position just a bit longer in the hopes that it turns back into a winner. It is very hard to make the decision to cut your losses and even harder to resist the temptation to book profits too early on a winning trade. This is called leaving money on the table. A common mistake is to ride a loser too long in the hopes it comes back and to cut a winner way too early. If you use technical analysis to establish entry and exit levels, be very disciplined in following through on your original trading plan.
Price charts
Chart patterns
There are a variety of charts that show price action. The most common are bar charts. Each bar will represent one period of time and that period can be anything from one minute to one month to several years. These charts will show distinct price patterns that develop over time.
Candlestick patterns Like bar charts patterns, candlestick patterns can be used to forecast the market. Because of their colored bodies, candlesticks provide greater visual detail in their chart patterns than bar charts.
Point & figure patterns Point and figure patterns are essentially the same patterns found in bar charts but Xs and Os are used to market changes in price direction. In addition, point and figure charts make no use of time scales to indicate the particular day associated with certain price action.
Technical Indicators
Here are a few of the more common types of indicators used in technical analysis:
Trend indicators Trend is a term used to describe the persistence of price movement in one direction over time. Trends move in three directions: up, down and sideways. Trend indicators smooth variable price data to create a composite of market direction. (Example: Moving Averages, Trend lines)
Strength indicators Market strength describes the intensity of market opinion with reference to a price by examining the market positions taken by various market participants. Volume or open interest are the basic ingredients of this indicator. Their signals are coincident or leading the market. (Example: Volume)
Volatility indicators Volatility is a general term used to describe the magnitude, or size, of day-to-day price fluctuations independent of their direction. Generally, changes in volatility tend to lead changes in prices. (Example: Bollinger Bands)
Cycle indicators A cycle is a term to indicate repeating patterns of market movement, specific to recurrent events, such as seasons, elections, etc. Many markets have a tendency to move in cyclical patterns. Cycle indicators determine the timing of a particular market patterns. (Example: Elliott Wave)
Support/resistance indicators Support and resistance describes the price levels where markets repeatedly rise or fall and then reverse. This phenomenon is attributed to basic supply and demand. (Example: Trend Lines)
Momentum indicators Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Momentum indicators determine the strength or weakness of a trend as it progresses over time. Momentum is highest at the beginning of a trend and lowest at trend turning points. Any divergence of directions in price and momentum is a warning of weakness; if price extremes occur with weak momentum, it signals an end of movement in that direction. If momentum is trending strongly and prices are flat, it signals a potential change in price direction. (Example: Stochastic, MACD, RSI)
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Wajah Beberapa Emiten_13 Jan 2009_UNVR-TLKM-INCO-PTBA
Pilihlah saham yang paling cocok dan periksa lagi di chart Anda, dan jangan lupa Trading Plan dan Money Management serta jaga emosi.
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Belajar AFL Money Management
Berikut adalah AFL untuk MM yang tadi dikirim ke milis Amibroker Indonesia dan Junior Trader. Copy Paste ke AB, save dan jalankan melalui Exploration.
Sinyal bisa diganti sesuai yang dipercayai selalu Cuan. Dalam contoh yang terus dikembangkan ini menggunakan Stochastic KD dan Volume=100.000 untuk Sinyal Buy Sell dan Pivot untuk MM.
_SECTION_BEGIN("My MM ");
//Sinyal
k = StochK(15,3);
d= StochD(15,3,3);
//Rumus PIVOT
P = (H+L+C) / 3;
R1= (P * 2) - L;
S1= (P * 2) - H;
R2 = P + (R1 - S1);
S2 = P - (R1 - S1);
R3 = H + 2*(P - L);
S3 = L - 2*(H - P);
//Money Management
//ganti sesuai kebiasaan Anda
modal = 20000000; //berapa modal Anda
plan = modal *6/100;
riskpertrade = (2/100);
feebuysell= 25000;
Maxriskpertrade = (modal*riskpertrade) +feebuysell;
plannedbuypointmin = s1;
plannedbuypoint = r1;
plannedStopLoss = plannedbuypoint -(plannedbuypoint * (5/100));
targetprice = r2;
slippage = 2.5/100;
sisarisk = plannedbuypoint - plannedstoploss + (plannedbuypoint * slippage);
Maxpostsize = (Maxriskpertrade / sisarisk) / 500;
esttotalbuy = (plannedbuypoint * Maxpostsize) *500;
Maxbuy = (Maxpostsize * plannedbuypoint) * 500;
stoploss = (Maxpostsize * plannedstoploss) * 500;
selisih = (stoploss-Maxbuy) ;
resiko = Maxbuy/modal;
persenresiko = resiko / Maxbuy;
trailstop = IIf(C>Ref(C,-1),50/100*(C-Ref(C,-1)),0);
Buy1 = Cross(k,d);
b1= (V>=100000);
Buy = buy1 AND b1;
Sell = Cross(d,k) AND b1;
Cover = Buy;
Short = Sell;
Filter = Buy OR Sell;
AddTextColumn( FullName(), "Emiten",77 , colorDefault,IIf(Buy,colorBrightGreen,colorRed));
AddColumn(Ref(C,-1), "PrevClose",1.0, IIf( Ref(C,-1), colorGold, colorBlack ));
AddColumn(O, "Open",1.0, IIf( O==L , colorGreen, IIf(O==Ref(C,-1),colorGold, IIf(O
AddColumn(C-Ref(C,-1),"Naik/Trn",1.0, IIf(C>Ref(C,-1),colorGreen,IIf(C==Ref(C,-1),colorGold,IIf(C
AddColumn(plannedbuypointmin,"BuyPointMin",1);
AddColumn(plannedbuypoint,"BuyPointMax",1);
AddColumn(plannedStopLoss,"StopLoss",1);
AddColumn(Maxpostsize,"PoSize",1);
AddColumn(esttotalbuy, "EtsTtlBuy",1);
AddColumn(resiko, "Risk",1.2);
AddColumn(C-trailstop,"TrailStop",1);
AddColumn(targetprice,"TargetPrice",1);
AddColumn(Cross(k,d), "StoKDBuy", 1,colorDefault,IIf( Cross(k,d), colorBlue, colorWhite) );
AddColumn(Cross(d,k), "StoKDSell", 1,colorDefault,IIf( Cross(d,k), colorRed, colorWhite ) );
AddColumn( r3,"R 3",1.0);
AddColumn( r2,"R 2",1.0);
AddColumn( r1,"R 1",1.0);
AddColumn( P,"Pivot",1.0);
AddColumn( S1,"S 1",1.0);
AddColumn( S2,"S 2",1.0);
AddColumn( S3,"S 3",1.0);
_SECTION_END();
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Sinyal bisa diganti sesuai yang dipercayai selalu Cuan. Dalam contoh yang terus dikembangkan ini menggunakan Stochastic KD dan Volume=100.000 untuk Sinyal Buy Sell dan Pivot untuk MM.
_SECTION_BEGIN("My MM ");
//Sinyal
k = StochK(15,3);
d= StochD(15,3,3);
//Rumus PIVOT
P = (H+L+C) / 3;
R1= (P * 2) - L;
S1= (P * 2) - H;
R2 = P + (R1 - S1);
S2 = P - (R1 - S1);
R3 = H + 2*(P - L);
S3 = L - 2*(H - P);
//Money Management
//ganti sesuai kebiasaan Anda
modal = 20000000; //berapa modal Anda
plan = modal *6/100;
riskpertrade = (2/100);
feebuysell= 25000;
Maxriskpertrade = (modal*riskpertrade) +feebuysell;
plannedbuypointmin = s1;
plannedbuypoint = r1;
plannedStopLoss = plannedbuypoint -(plannedbuypoint * (5/100));
targetprice = r2;
slippage = 2.5/100;
sisarisk = plannedbuypoint - plannedstoploss + (plannedbuypoint * slippage);
Maxpostsize = (Maxriskpertrade / sisarisk) / 500;
esttotalbuy = (plannedbuypoint * Maxpostsize) *500;
Maxbuy = (Maxpostsize * plannedbuypoint) * 500;
stoploss = (Maxpostsize * plannedstoploss) * 500;
selisih = (stoploss-Maxbuy) ;
resiko = Maxbuy/modal;
persenresiko = resiko / Maxbuy;
trailstop = IIf(C>Ref(C,-1),50/100*(C-Ref(C,-1)),0);
Buy1 = Cross(k,d);
b1= (V>=100000);
Buy = buy1 AND b1;
Sell = Cross(d,k) AND b1;
Cover = Buy;
Short = Sell;
Filter = Buy OR Sell;
AddTextColumn( FullName(), "Emiten",77 , colorDefault,IIf(Buy,colorBrightGreen,colorRed));
AddColumn(Ref(C,-1), "PrevClose",1.0, IIf( Ref(C,-1), colorGold, colorBlack ));
AddColumn(O, "Open",1.0, IIf( O==L , colorGreen, IIf(O==Ref(C,-1),colorGold, IIf(O
AddColumn(C-Ref(C,-1),"Naik/Trn",1.0, IIf(C>Ref(C,-1),colorGreen,IIf(C==Ref(C,-1),colorGold,IIf(C
AddColumn(plannedbuypointmin,"BuyPointMin",1);
AddColumn(plannedbuypoint,"BuyPointMax",1);
AddColumn(plannedStopLoss,"StopLoss",1);
AddColumn(Maxpostsize,"PoSize",1);
AddColumn(esttotalbuy, "EtsTtlBuy",1);
AddColumn(resiko, "Risk",1.2);
AddColumn(C-trailstop,"TrailStop",1);
AddColumn(targetprice,"TargetPrice",1);
AddColumn(Cross(k,d), "StoKDBuy", 1,colorDefault,IIf( Cross(k,d), colorBlue, colorWhite) );
AddColumn(Cross(d,k), "StoKDSell", 1,colorDefault,IIf( Cross(d,k), colorRed, colorWhite ) );
AddColumn( r3,"R 3",1.0);
AddColumn( r2,"R 2",1.0);
AddColumn( r1,"R 1",1.0);
AddColumn( P,"Pivot",1.0);
AddColumn( S1,"S 1",1.0);
AddColumn( S2,"S 2",1.0);
AddColumn( S3,"S 3",1.0);
_SECTION_END();
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Monday, January 12, 2009
CIRI-CIRI YAHUDI dan ISLAM
Berikut beberapa cuplikan Al-Quran
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
CIRI-CIRI YAHUDI
[5.42] Mereka itu adalah orang-orang yang suka mendengar berita bohong, banyak memakan yang haram. Jika mereka (orang Yahudi) datang kepadamu (untuk meminta putusan), maka putuskanlah (perkara itu) di antara mereka, atau berpalinglah dari mereka; jika kamu berpaling dari mereka maka mereka tidak akan memberi mudarat kepadamu sedikit pun. Dan jika kamu memutuskan perkara mereka, maka putuskanlah (perkara itu) di antara mereka dengan adil, sesungguhnya Allah menyukai orang-orang yang adil.
[5.64] Orang-orang Yahudi berkata: "Tangan Allah terbelenggu", sebenarnya tangan merekalah yang dibelenggu dan merekalah yang dilaknat disebabkan apa yang telah mereka katakan itu. (Tidak demikian), tetapi kedua-dua tangan Allah terbuka; Dia menafkahkan sebagaimana Dia kehendaki. Dan Al Qur'an yang diturunkan kepadamu dari Tuhanmu sungguh-sungguh akan menambah kedurhakaan dan kekafiran bagi kebanyakan di antara mereka. Dan Kami telah timbulkan permusuhan dan kebencian di antara mereka sampai hari kiamat. Setiap mereka menyalakan api peperangan, Allah memadamkannya dan mereka berbuat kerusakan di muka bumi dan Allah tidak menyukai orang-orang yang membuat kerusakan.
CIRI-CIRI ISLAM
[2.177] Bukanlah menghadapkan wajahmu ke arah timur dan barat itu suatu kebajikan, akan tetapi sesungguhnya kebajikan itu ialah beriman kepada Allah, hari kemudian, malaikat-malaikat, kitab-kitab, nabi-nabi dan memberikan harta yang dicintainya kepada kerabatnya, anak-anak yatim, orang-orang miskin, musafir (yang memerlukan pertolongan) dan orang-orang yang meminta-minta; dan (memerdekakan) hamba sahaya, mendirikan salat, dan menunaikan zakat; dan orang-orang yang menepati janjinya apabila ia berjanji, dan orang-orang yang sabar dalam kesempitan, penderitaan dan dalam peperangan. Mereka itulah orang-orang yang benar (imannya); dan mereka itulah orang-orang yang bertakwa.
Semoga masalah Palestina cepat selesai dan tidak ada lagi korban yang berjatuhan.
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Money Management
Berikut cuplikan kata dari David Jenyns.
Money Management is probably the most underutilized, under-appreciated aspect of most people`s trading. Yet it underpins (support) every successful trading system seen.
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Money Management is probably the most underutilized, under-appreciated aspect of most people`s trading. Yet it underpins (support) every successful trading system seen.
Successful trading brings huge rewards. Nevertheless, do not kid yourself; it takes effort! You need a set of rules to follow, then discipline to follow through.
I am sick and tired of hearing about miraculous ways of getting *wealthy* overnight with little or no work. I am especially sick of hearing from the suckers who fall for this nonsense.
If you are serious about trading, money management MUST be a major element of your trading plan.
Money Management kira-kira berisi tentang.
- Tentukan berapa yang akan ditransasikan, sebaiknya pakai Idle Money
- Tentukan berapa jumlah RESIKO TOTAL dari modal (umumnya 6 – 7%), misal dari modal 50jt maka dengan resiko 6% jika total loss mencapai 3jt, sebaiknya berhenti trading dulu dan periksa sistemnya yang keliru atau Anda TIDAK DISIPLIN
- Tentukan berapa jumlah dari modal yang bersedia di RESIKOKAN dalam setiap transaksi(umumnya 1-2%). Misal: dengan modal 50jt dan resiko 1% maka resiko setiap transaksi = 500.000 ribu.
- ENTRY, di harga berapa ?
- POSITION SIZE, beli berapa Lot ?
- Tentukan STOP LOSS di harga berapa ?
- Tentukan TRAIL STOP jika harga bergerak sesuai yg dimauin ?
- Tentukan TARGE PRICE di berapa ?
Semoga bermanfaat.
ES
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
DISCLAIMER ON Share
Sunday, January 11, 2009
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